Myndarlegri frambjóðendur vinna kosningar, skv nýrri rannsókn

Og það sem skiptir mestu máli er að vera grannvaxinn, með skýra kjálkalínu og einbeitt augnarráð. Í rannsókninni var fólk látið horfa á tíu sekúndna hljóðlaus myndbandsskeið af frambjóðendum demokrata og repúblíkana í 58 fylkisstjórakosningum 1988-2002, og látið spá fyrir um hvor frambjóðandinn myndi vinna. Ef þátttakendur þekktu annan hvorn frambjóðandann var svarið ógilt - og því hefði niðurstaðan átt að vera fullkomlega random, þ.e. ef útlit skiptir engu máli. En útkoman var sú að spár fólks um hver vann voru nokkuð góðar.

The research did not show that any individual volunteers were exceptionally good at making predictions -- individuals regularly made predictions that were right and wrong. But when the answers were averaged over the whole group, the volunteers were able to spot winners more often than mere chance would dictate.

Curiously, when the sound was on and the volunteers could hear what each candidate said for 10 seconds, the viewers became much more confident in their guesses about who won, but their predictions became worse -- no better than chance. ...

"Economists have focused on the performance of the economy under the incumbent," he said. "Those factors explain at most 10 percent of the variation in the election outcomes and probably much less, whereas the personal factors explain between 20-30 percent." ... My guess is it affects undecided voters, these are the guys who swing the elections at the end," said Alexander Todorov, a psychologist at Princeton University who has conducted similar experiments. He found that when people are shown two photographs of political candidates but given no other information, they usually have a quick feeling about who looks more competent.

Fyrir tveimur vikum flutti Washington Post frétt um að frambjóðendur demokrata væru óvenjulega myndarlegir í ár. Mark Kennedy (sjá mynd að neðan) ætti samkvæmt þessu ekki að ná kosningu, enda með hálf þorskslegt andlitslag og sljótt augnaráð. Möguleikar Macaca Allen virðist hins vegar nokkuð góðir. Og þegar við bætist að Allen á flottari stígvél en Webb (allavegana skv NYT) er útkoma kosninganna nokkurnveginn ráðin!

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